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Thursday, January 18, 2018

Are Philippine Real Estate Prices Starting a Downtrend?

According to the BSP's Residential Real Estate Price Index (RREPI), residential real estate prices for the entire Philippines (All Types) declined for two quarters in a row, from 111.8 as of the first quarter 2017 to 111.6 as of the third quarter 2017 - a decline of 2.02% in six  months. The decline was led by ex-NCR real estate prices, which declined by 3.14% from a high of 111.6 as of the first quarter 2017 to 108.1 in the third quarter of 2017. The decline in NCR prices was marginal, only 0.17% in six months.




 The prices for Single Detached Homes in the NCR declined by a substantial 4.58% year over year, from 80.4 as of the third quarter 2016 to 76.5 as of the third quarter 2017. Ex-NCR prices for Single Detached Homes gained 1.43% for the same time period. On an overall basis, prices for Single Detached Homes increased by 0.78% year over year.


 Duplex prices declined substantial 8.58% year-over-year, from 96.7 as of the third quarter 2016 to 88.4 as of the third quarter 2017. The decline was led by NCR Duplex prices, which declined by an astounding 13.58%, from 89.1 as of the third quarter 2016 to 77.0 a year later. Ex-NCR prices also declined during this period, but only by 5.65%.


Townhouse prices were one of the bright spots in the residential real estate sector, climbing 7.25% from the third quarter 2016 to the third quarter 2017. The gains were led by NCR Townhouses, which increased by 11.61% for the same period. Gains in Ex-NCR Townhouse prices were more muted, gaining 2.55%.





Condominiums were another bright spot in the residential real estate sector. Throughout the Philippines, prices gained 3.64% year-over-year. The gains were primarily due to Ex-NCR condominiums, which rose 13.12% year-over-year. NCR condominium prices gained only 2.42% in one year.

How reliable are these trends? BSP's Residential Real Estate Price Index (RREPI) is relatively new, having begun only in the second quarter of 2015. So, it's a little over two years old and the results have been volatile. The kinks in the statistics will, hopefully, over time, be worked out.

Read: The Unbearable Volatility of BSP's Residential Real Estate Price Index

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