Philippine Home Prices have gone parabolic. Home prices are now 116.03% above their inflation-adjusted basis.
Tuesday, August 20, 2019
Tuesday, August 13, 2019
House Prices in New Zealand continue to rise. In the first quarter of 2019, it rose 3.5% year-over-year.
The ratio of real house prices to real disposable income seems to have reached a permanently high plateau. The ratio is now 2.29 standard deviations from the mean of 76.82%, implying a probability of only 1.10% that the ratio will go even higher. In other words, it's firmly in bubble territory and seems to be staying there.
Sunday, August 11, 2019
I know one data point does not make a trend but it's starting to look like foreign born workers are starting lose out in a Trump economy. The proportion of employed foreign workers has been dropping for five months straight since they peaked in February 2019.
Tuesday, August 6, 2019
The opposite trend is true in the market for new homes. Volumes are up while prices are down a mere 2.60% from their peak in 2018.
But since the market for existing homes is almost eight times the size of the new homes market, the existing homes market trend is the dominant one.
Are we in for another housing crash. In a word, no. Not yet. This is just a slowdown and not a crash.