House Prices in New Zealand continue to rise. In the first quarter of 2019, it rose 3.5% year-over-year.
This is in sharp contrast to its next door neighbor, Australia, where house prices in the first quarter of 2019 have dropped 7.7% year-over-year and are down 8.27% from their peak in the fourth quarter of 2017.
In real terms, New Zealand's uptrend in home prices seems to have accelerated and verges on the parabolic, vastly outpacing real disposable income.
The ratio of real house prices to real disposable income seems to have reached a permanently high plateau. The ratio is now 2.29 standard deviations from the mean of 76.82%, implying a probability of only 1.10% that the ratio will go even higher. In other words, it's firmly in bubble territory and seems to be staying there.
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