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Friday, April 14, 2017

What Gives in the Philippine Real Estate Market? Sales Volumes Are Up Yet House Prices Decline in 2016

According to the HLURB, sales volume increased by a dramatic 17.59% to reach 255,115 units sold in 2016 from only 216,503 units sold in 2015.  Yet prices stayed flat or declined slightly year-on-year in 2016.  The Philippine House Price Index, computed from changes in house prices in the Makati CBD as published in the Global Property Guide, fell by a slight 0.75% from year-end 2015 to reach 218.47 in 2016.

According to the Residential Real Estate Price Index put out by the BSP, prices for all types of housing grew by a marginal 0.3% year-on-year 2016, the slowest pace since the index came out in the second quarter of 2015.

Metro Manila saw a significant 8.6% year-on-year decline in the single detached housing market. In areas outside the NCR, the decline was marginal - only 0.18% in 2016. Overall, the market for single detached homes declined by 1.00% in 2016.

Price declines in the duplex market were also very significant, droppng 12.32% in 2016 alone.  The NCR singlehandedly contributed to this decline, dropping 8.80% in 2016, more than offsetting all of the gains in duplex prices outside Metro Manila, which grew by a respectable 5.50% in 2016.

The townhouse market remained healthy.  Townhouse prices increased by 6.24% in 2016 overall.  But almost all of this increase came outside Metro Manila.  Ex-NCR, townhouse prices increased by 16.31% in 2016. In the NCR, townhouse prices increased by a barely perceptible 0.08% in 2016.

Ex-NCR was also the bright spot in the condominium market.  Outside the NCR, condo prices increased by 6.24% in 2016. NCR condo prices also grew, albeit more slowly: 1.27% in 2016, bringing up the Philippine average by 1.79% in terms of condo prices in 2016.

Much of the growth, therefore, is coming not from the over-saturated NCR, but from outside of it, indicating that the benefits of economic growth are spreading out to the rest of the Philippine economy, which could result in a much healthier real estate market.

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