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Friday, September 9, 2016

Have Philippine Home Prices Already Plateaued?

For the first time in years, Philippine House Prices seem to be on the decline.  As of the second quarter of 2016, the Philippine House Price Index stood at 218.29 or 1.22% below the peak of 220.99 as of the first quarter of 2016.  

Based on BSP's Residential Real Estate Price Index (RREPI), the price declines seem to have taken place in Metro Manila (NCR), which slipped a marginal 0.26% from 116.9 as of the fourth quarter of 2015 to 116.6 in the first quarter of 2016.  Meanwhile, prices outside NCR have shown healthy gains.

Sales volumes, as shown by HLURB's License to Sell statistics, seem to show around a 5% drop for the first half of the year and a 22% drop in sales volumes since hitting a peak in 2012.

Is this a mere blip or pause in the relentless upsurge of the real estate market? Or the beginning of a sectoral decline? Only time will tell.

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