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Friday, April 1, 2016

Is Another US Recession Underway?

Is another recession in the US underway?  Total US Business Sales, which includes monthly sales by all US businesses - not just large cap S&P 500 companies, has slumped 4.62% from its high of $1.365 trillion last July 2014 to just $1.302 trillion as of December 2015.

As the chart below indicates, significant drops in Total US Business Sales have coincided with the past two US recessions.

In the 2000 recession, Total US Business Sales dropped almost 5% from its peak of $845.362 billion in September 2000 to $803.422 billion just one year lates.

In the Great Recession, Total US Business Sales peaked at $1.221 trillion in June 2008.  It then dropped by a staggering 22.02% to reach $952.160 billion by April 2009.

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