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Friday, December 18, 2015

Philippine Real Estate and Construction Loans Are Even More Out of Whack As of September 2015!

It sure looks that way, judging from this chart:

It looks like Real Estate and Construction Loans as a percentage of Total Loan Portfolio (TLP) rocketed past its historical range of 12.6% to 16.6% of TLP sometime in 2011.  That ratio peaked at 20.55% as of September 2013 but has bottomed out at 18.61% of TLP as of December 2014. In the last nine months of the year, this ratio has climbed back up to 19.96% as of September 2015.

Now, are we up to the levels of the previous real estate boom? (as in mid 1990s to 1997?) Honestly, we don't know.  BSP data only goes as far back as 1999 when the previous real estate bubble had already burst and the financial system was most likely deleveraging as evidenced in this chart.

Construction Gross Value as a Percentage of GDP Has Is at a 25 Year High! - Updated as of 3rd Qtr. 2015

Has the Philippine Real Estate Bubble Already Burst?

Is There a Real Estate Bubble in the Philippines?

Are Philippine Real Estate Loans Out of Whack?

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