"...recovery in the labor market is far from complete...Those out of a job for more than six months continue to make up an unusually large fraction of the unemployed and the number of people who are working part-time but would prefer a full-time job remains very high...These observations underscore the importance of considering more than the unemployment rate when evaluating the condition of the U.S. labor market."
Although the US economy is a year or two away from recovering the millions in jobs lost since the economic recession began, the rate of job growth has been anemic and has not kept pace with population growth (See chart from the blog Calculated Risk below).
The sharp drop in the Unemployment Rate, from an average annual peak of 9.9% in 2009 to only 6.6% as of January 2014, was mainly a result of people dropping out of the labor force altogether. The Labor Force Participation Rate currently stands at 63% as of January 2014, a level not seen since the late 1970s when many women started entering the workforce in droves.
The Civilian Employment to Population Ratio (E/P Ratio), which is a better indicator of true labor market conditions because it includes people who have dropped out of the labor force, has barely budged from its lows of 58.3% as of 2009 and 2010.
But how have these measures played out on a state-by-state basis? Both Labor Force Participation and Unemployment rates have dropped across the board on a state-by-state basis and with a few exceptions, still continue to drop. But in terms of the Civilian Employment to Population Ratio (E/P Ratio), some states have bottomed out and are starting to come off their lows.
The states that have bottomed out are as follows:
1. California:
The E/P Ratio for the golden state bottomed out at 56% in 2011 and now stands at 57.1% as of December 2013.
2. District of Columbia:
DC's E/P Ratio also bottomed out at 60.8% in 2011 and now stands at 62.6% as of December 2013.
3. Florida:
Florida's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 54.5% in 2010 and now stands at 55.9% as of December 2013.
4. Hawaii:
Hawaii's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 57.6% in 2012 and now stands marginally higher at 57.9% as of December 2013.
5. Idaho:
Idaho's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 59.5% in 2011 and now stands at 60.2% as of December 2013.
6. Indiana:
Indiana's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 57.3% in 2010 and now stands at 58.4% as of December 2013.
7: Iowa:
Iowa's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 65% in 2012 and now stands at 66.4% as of December 2013.
8. Louisiana:
Louisiana's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 55.2% in 2011 and now stands at 55.8% as of December 2013.
9. Maine:
Maine's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 60.0% in 2010 and now stands at 61.2% as of December 2013
10. Michigan:
Michigan's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 53.6% in 2010 and now stands at 54.9% as of December 2013.
11. Missouri:
Missouri's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 59.5% in 2009 and now stands at 60.4% as of December 2013.
12. Montana:
Montana's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 59.3% in 2011 and now stands at 60.3% as of December 2013.
13. Nebraska:
Nebraska's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 68.1% in 2010 and now stands at 68.9% as of December 2013.
14. New York:
New York's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 56.4% as of 2011 and now stands at 56.9% as of December 2013.
15: North Carolina:
North Carolina's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 56.5% in 2011 and now stands at 57.0% as of December 2013.
16. North Dakota:
North Dakota's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 69.1% and now stands at 69.6% as of December 2013.
17. Oklahoma:
Oklahoma's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 58.5% in 2010 and now stands at 58.7% as of December 2013.
18. Pennsylvania:
Pennsylvania's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 58.2% in 2011 and now stands at 58.6% as of December 2013.
19. South Carolina:
South Carolina's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 53.7% in 2011 and now stands at 54.2% as of December 2013.
20. Texas:
Texas E/P Ratio bottomed out at 60.6% in 2011 and now stands at 61.0% as of December 2013.
21. Utah:
Utah's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 62.9% in 2011 and now stands at 66.0% as of December 2013.
22. West Virginia:
West Virginia's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 49.8% in 2011 and now stands at 50.2% as of December 2013.
23. Wisconsin:
Wisconsin's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 63.3% in 2012 and now stands at 63.7% as of December 2013.
The E/P Ratio of a few states have moved sideways off their lows. The States that are going sideways are as follows:
1. Kentucky:
Kentucky's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 55.4% in 2010, moving up to 56.3% in 2012, only to touch the low of 55.4% as of December 2013.
Minnesota's E/P Ratio bottomed out at 66.5% in 2009 and has moved 66.9% as of December 2013.
3. Virginia:
Virginia's E/P Ratio has also remained flat at 62.5% since 2010.
The E/P Ratio of many states are still on a marked downtrend. Those states that are still on a downtrend are as follows:
1. Alabama:
Alabama's E/P Ratio hit a new low at 52.% as of December 2013.
2. Alaska:
Alaska's E/P Ratio continues its march downward to 63.0% as of December 2013.
3. Arizona:
Arizona's E/P Ratio is still declining, reaching 54.2% as of December 2013.
4. Arkansas:
Arkansas' E/P Ratio is also at a new low of 53.8% as of December 2013.
5. Colorado:
Colorado's E/P Ratio has hit a new low of 63.0% as of December 2013.
6. Connecticut:
Connecticut's E/P Ratio now stands at 59.6% as of December 2013.
7. Delaware:
Delaware's E/P Ratio now stands at 56.5% as of December 2013.
8. Illinois:
Illinois E/P Ratio now stands at 59.4% as of December 2013.
9. Kansas:
Kansas' E/P Ratio now stands at 64.2% as of December 2013.
10. Maryland:
Maryland's E/P Ratio now stands at 62.6% as of December 2013.
11. Massachussets:
Massachussets' E/P Ratio now stands at 59.9% as of December 2013.
12. Mississippi:
Mississippi's E/P Ratio now stands at 51.6% as of December 2013.
13. Nevada:
Nevada's E/P Ratio now stands at 57.1% as of December 2013.
14. New Hampshire:
New Hampshire's E/P Ratio now stands at 65.4% as of December 2013.
15. New Jersey:
New Jersey's E/P Ratio now stands at 59.3% as of December 2013.
16. New Mexico:
New Mexico's E/P Ratio now stands at 53.9% as of December 2013.
17. Ohio:
Ohio's E/P Ratio now stands at 58.7% as of December 2013.
18. Oregon:
Oregon's E/P Ratio now stands at 56.7% as of December 2013.
19. Rhode Island:
Rhode Island's E/P Ratio now stands at 58.9% as of December 2013.
20. South Dakota:
South Dakota's E/P Ratio now stands at 67.2% as of December 2013.
21. Tennessee:
Tennessee's E/P Ratio now stands at 55.0% as of December 2013.
22. Vermont:
Vermont's E/P Ratio now stands at 65.4% as of December 2013.
23. Washington:
Washington's E/P Ratio now stands at 59.1% as of December 2013.
24. Wyoming:
Wyoming's E/P Ratio now stands at 64.6% as of December 2013.
Puerto Rico's employment situation has been a basket case for a long, long time. It has had a chronically low Labor Force Participation Rate that has never gone above 50% since 2000 and that now threatens to breach below the 40% level in 2014, having reached an all time low of 40.11% as of December 2013. The same holds true for its E/P Ratio, which now stands at an unheard of 34.70% as of December 2013. The Unemployment Rate, which peaked at 16.55% in 2010, is still at 13.49% as of December 2013 or double the US national average of 6.7% as of the same period.
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