Great Recession vs. Great Depression: Is the GDP Growth Rate Finally Speeding Up?

 Two months ago, we lamented on how the economic recovery of the Great Recession had become officially much slower than that of the Great Depression. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released an advance estimate of the GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2018.  The good news? It's finally at 4.1%, a rate not seen since the third quarter of 2014.

On a Nominal GDP Per Capita basis, the economic recovery of the Great Recession is still way ahead of the Great Depression. The dip in nominal GDP per capita was really shallow - less than 3 percentage points. The drop in GDP per capita during the Great Depression was a catastrophic 47%.

At this point in the economic recovery, some eleven years after the Great Recession started, we are almost 30% better than where we were. Where as during the Great Depression, nominal GDP per capita remained almost 10% below the depression's inception.

In terms of real GDP per capita, people were made whole only on 2013 of the Great Recession. Five years later, we are only 12% better than where we were in 2013.  During the Great Depression, people were only made whole, in terms of Real GDP Per Capita, only on year 10 of the Great Depression. But the recovery accelerated even faster. Just one year later, people were 8% better. That trend will accelerate in year 12 - by then, they will be almost 18% better than they were just one year earlier. Now where will we be one year from now? We don't know. So far, we are faring better than people of  the Great Depression, but just barely.

Which Australian City Has the Most Unaffordable Real Estate? The Answer Might Surprise You.

We've all seen this chart. Next to New Zealand, Australia has one of the most overheated real estate markets in the entire world.

As of March 2018, Australian Home Prices have appreciated more than 83% above where they would be on an inflation-adjusted basis.

But which is the most overheated real estate market in Australia? It's definitely not Sydney. As it turns out, Sydney's price appreciation is below average. That honor goes to Melbourne, closely followed by Darwin, with Hobart and Perth fast catching up.

Amazingly, Darwin peaked way back in June 2014 - four years ago. It is now down more than 17% from that peak. The same holds true for Perth. Those markets have been in correction mode for years. At it's peak, Darwin home prices appreciated a full 156 percentage points above inflation. As of March 2018, the inflation gap for Darwin is down to only 99%. With an inflation gap of 117%, Melbourne is now the undisputed champion of unaffordable Australian real estate.

How about Sydney? Sydney's inflation gap is only 66%, substantially lower than the Eight City average of 77%.

How Overheated are the Real Estate Markets of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand?

If Filipinos Are Getting Richer, Why Are There Fewer Filipino Students in the USA Every Year? - Updated as of 2016-2017

If Filipinos are getting richer, why are there fewer and fewer Filipino students studying in the USA every year?

 According to the latest Open Doors Report, the number of Filipino students studying in US Colleges and Universities, at 3,066 students in 2016, is even lower than what it was in the year 2000: 3,139 students. However, this is a 4.16% increase over the previous year's total of 2,886 students.

This runs counter to the trend in the ASEAN. Other ASEAN countries, particularly Vietnam, have been enrolling more and more of their students in US Colleges and Universities.

If Filipinos Are Getting Richer, Why Are There Fewer Filipino Students in the USA Every Year?


The Mysterious Decline of Filipino Students in the US