How Crazy is the Philippine Real Estate Market? Prices have Climbed Over 63% Since Duterte Took Office!

Philippine house prices have gone parabolic. They have climbed 63.33% since President Duterte took office in the second half of 2016. Year-on-year price increase as of the 4th Qtr 2019 is an astounding 26.28%. Prices have outpaced inflation by a wide margin, 169.37 percentage points.

How long can this go on? Not long, considering sales volumes dropped by more than  25% in 2018, indicating that more and more people cannot afford the high price levels.

In 2018, Even Ayala Land Had a Less Than Stellar Year

Last time we looked at Ayala Land, its Installment Contract Receivables (ICRs) problem had gotten worse and not better.

In 2018, things are looking better - much better. A lot of its ICRs were sold off to affiliates like BPI Family Bank and the overall level of ICRs have gone down substantially.

But credit quality remains a problem.

As a percentage of the remaining ICRs, total past due and impaired ICRs has not changed much.

Ayala Land's Real Estate Receivables Problem Has Gotten Worse, Not Better

The Philippine Real Estate Bubble Has Also Burst For... Ayala Land!

How Crazy is the Philippine Real Estate Market? Prices have Climbed Almost 50% Since Duterte Took Office!

Philippine house prices have gone parabolic. They have climbed 49.30% since President Duterte took office in the second half of 2016. Year-on-year price increase as of the 3rd Qtr 2019 is an astounding 21.20%. Prices have outpaced inflation by a wide margin, 139.88 percentage points.


How long can this go on? Not long, considering sales volumes dropped by more than  25% in 2018, indicating that more and more people cannot afford the high price levels.

While Philippine House Prices Rose Sharply in 2018, Sales Volumes Fell. Is this the Start of the Real Estate Crash?

In a classic technical analysis indicator, Philippine Home Prices rose by 15.40% in 2018 while sales volumes fell by a startling 25.55% over the previous year, indicating that fewer and fewer people could afford the higher prices.

Despite this, House Prices, at least in the Makati CBD, continued to rise even further, by 10.07% as of the second quarter of 2019.

Today, the BSP reported that its Residential Real Estate Price Index (RREPI) fell by 2.08% on a Philippine-wide basis and across all types. Prices in areas outside the National Capital Region (Ex-NCR) fell while real estate prices in the National Capital Region (NCR) stayed about flat.

Although this is only a slowdown and a very marginal one at that, it could lead to a crash as the market clears.

This is Even Nuttier! When's the Crash? Philippine Home Prices Have Gone Even More Parabolic!

This is Even Nuttier! When's the Crash? Philippine Home Prices Have Gone Even More Parabolic!

Philippine Home Prices have gone parabolic. Home prices are now 125.63% above their inflation-adjusted basis.

On a year-over-year basis, home prices have increased almost 20% year-on-year since the second quarter  of 2018. Since the third quarter of 2016, home prices have climbed 43.39%. This pace is unsustainable and will not last.

This is Nuts. When's the Crash? Philippine Home Prices Have Gone Parabolic!

Philippine Home Prices have gone parabolic. Home prices are now 116.03% above their inflation-adjusted basis.

On a year-over-year basis, home prices have increased almost 19% since the first quarter  of 2018. Since the third quarter of 2016, home prices have climbed 38%. This pace is unsustainable and will not last.

Philippine House Prices are Still Accelerating! - As of December 31, 2018

Despite the gloomy global macroeconomic environment for emerging markets, Philippine House Prices continued to accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2018. The Philippine House Price Index (culled from data from Colliers International Philippines on Luxury 3BR Condominiums in the Makati CBD), accelerated by 5.00% alone in the fourth quarter of 2018. This is the fastest quarter-on-quarter growth since the second quarter of 2013, when prices rose by 6.92% over the previous quarter. The index now stands at 278.21, almost three times more than its base of 100.00 since the fourth quarter of 2004. The index is also 97 percentage points higher than its inflation adjusted basis.

Source: Colliers International Philippines

Are ASEAN House Prices Accelerating? The Blow Off Top Continues as of Q2 2018

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore

Singapore's home prices which have been declining for fourteen straight quarters, have resumed their upward trend. Home prices have rebounded by 9.00% off the low of 168.02 as of the second quarter of 2018. However, home prices are still  83.27% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.87% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by more than 50 percentage points.

 Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 271.12 as of the first quarter 2018, 171.12% higher than year-end 1998 levels.  General price levels as of the fourth quarter 2017 are only around 55.59% higher than their year-end 1998 levels.

  

 Thailand

In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. In the second quarter of 2018, home prices have rebounded to 122.70, or 22.70% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 35.65% above their year-end 2004 levels. In other words, Thailand Home Prices have lagged inflation by as much as 12.95% since their year-end 2004 levels.

Indonesia

 
Meanwhile in Indonesia, home prices have showed no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices seem to have gone parabolic, climbing 4.63% in the last quarter of 2013, from a base of 121.49 as of the third quarter of 2013 to 127.11 as of year end 2013. In the first quarter of 2018, home prices have climbed an additional 25.47% to reach 152.58.  Since the first quarter of 2007, home prices have risen 52.58%, while inflation has raised general prices by 84.21% during the same period. Indonesian Home Prices, like Thailand, have lagged inflation since 2007.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong real estate prices have reached a staggering 465.25 as of the second quarter of 2018 from a base of 100 since year-end 2004. General inflation levels have just climbed 46.79% during this same period.  In other words, Hong Kong home prices have outpaced inflation by an astounding 318.46% during this period, the highest rate of appreciation in the countries covered in this post.

However, it is important to note that Hong Kong Home Prices have also entered into a minor correction phase, declining by 9.83% from its recent peak of 365.95 as of the third quarter of 2015 to just 329.38 as of the first quarter of 2016.  Although there was a distinct possibility that Hong Kong Home Prices entered a bear market just as it did in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, that possibility has now disappeared and the index is at an all-time high. See previous post: How low can Hong Kong Property Prices Go? Some Clues from the Not Too Distant Past

Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 255.26 at the end of the second quarter 2018 or over 155.26% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices, with the exception of Hong Kong, have posted the largest 10-year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Like Singapore and Malaysia, Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by around seventy-eight percentage points.  Like Indonesia and Hong Kong, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

 Source: Colliers International Philippines

Are ASEAN House Prices Accelerating? Is this the Blow Off Top in the ASEAN Real Estate Market?

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore

Singapore's home prices which have been declining for fourteen straight quarters, have resumed their upward trend. Home prices have rebounded by 5.46% off the low of 166.15 as of the first quarter of 2018. However, home prices are still  75.22% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 31.45% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by almost than 40 percentage points.

 Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 270.70 as of the fourth quarter 2017, 170.70% higher than year-end 1998 levels.  General price levels as of the fourth quarter 2017 are only around 54.89% higher than their year-end 1998 levels.

Thailand


In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. In the first quarter of 2018, home prices have rebounded to 122.61, or 22.61% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 35.20% above their year-end 2004 levels. In other words, Thailand Home Prices have lagged inflation by as much as 12.59% since their year-end 2004 levels.

 


Indonesia

 
Meanwhile in Indonesia, home prices have showed no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices seem to have gone parabolic, climbing 4.63% in the last quarter of 2013, from a base of 121.49 as of the third quarter of 2013 to 127.11 as of year end 2013. In the first quarter of 2018, home prices have climbed an additional 25.47% to reach 152.58.  Since the first quarter of 2007, home prices have risen 52.58%, while inflation has raised general prices by 84.21% during the same period. Indonesian Home Prices, like Thailand, have lagged inflation since 2007.

Hong Kong

 

Hong Kong real estate prices have reached a staggering 446.68 as of the first quarter of 2018 from a base of 100 since year-end 2004. General inflation levels have just climbed 47.18% during this same period.  In other words, Hong Kong home prices have outpaced inflation by an astounding 29.50% during this period, the highest rate of appreciation in the countries covered in this post.

However, it is important to note that Hong Kong Home Prices have also entered into a minor correction phase, declining by 9.83% from its recent peak of 365.95 as of the third quarter of 2015 to just 329.38 as of the first quarter of 2016.  Although there was a distinct possibility that Hong Kong Home Prices entered a bear market just as it did in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, that possibility has now disappeared and the index is at an all-time high. See previous post: How low can Hong Kong Property Prices Go? Some Clues from the Not Too Distant Past

 

 

 

Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 248.31 at the end of the first quarter 2018 or over 148.31% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices, with the exception of Hong Kong, have posted the largest 10-year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Like Singapore and Malaysia, Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by around seventy-eight percentage points.  Like Indonesia and Hong Kong, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

 

 

 

 Global Property Guide, Trading Economics, World Bank, Colliers International Philippines

Philippine Residential Sales Volumes Flattened in 2017. Could House Prices Do the Same?

In 2017, HLURB Licenses to Sell volumes grew by only 0.18% to reach 263,224 units. Last time this happened (2014 to 2015), house prices dipped very slightly (by 0.94%) the following year (2016). Will house prices do the same in 2018?

Singapore Breaks its Controlled Slide of House Prices While Philippine House Prices Hit New Highs in 2017 Q4

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore

Singapore's home prices which have been declining for fourteen straight quarters, have resumed their upward trend. Home prices have rebounded by 1.51% off the low of 166.15 as of the second quarter of 2017. Howevery, home prices are still  68.66% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.67% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by almost than 40 percentage points.

 Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 267.28 as of the third quarter 2017, 167.28% higher than year-end 1998 levels.  General price levels as of the third quarter 2017 are only around 53.54% higher than their year-end 1998 levels.

 Thailand

 Thailand's home prices have still not kept up with inflation. As of the fourth quarter of 2017, home prices are just 19.22% above their year-end 2004 levels, while the inflation index is 34.99% above its year-end 2004 levels.

 

Indonesia 

Meanwhile, in Indonesia, home prices have shown no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory. In fact, prices are now at 150.44 as of the fourth quarter of 2017 or 50.44% above their first quarter 2001 levels. Inflation, however, has marched higher. General prices are 82.71% above their first quarter 2007 levels. House prices, therefore, have lagged inflation by 32.27%.

 Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 241.08% as of the fourth quarter 2017 or over 141.08% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices have posted one of the largest 10 year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by over seventy percentage points.  General prices stood at 168.54% or 68.54% above their year-end 2004 levels. Like Indonesia, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

BSP's Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut Is Undeniably Very Procyclical at the Top of the Business Cycle

On February 15, 2018, the BSP said that it would lower bank's reserve requirement ratio from 20% to 19%, a move that is projected to inject at least Php 80 billion (US$ 1.53 billion) into the financial system.

This move was ostensibly done to mitigate the effects of global market volatility in the first two weeks of February 2018. But it is easy to get the impression that BSP panicked because the announcement was a surprise and was made after an unscheduled policy meeting.

This move is also undeniably pro-cyclical, coming near the top of the business cycle:

"Such an infusion of funds would risk adding to inflationary pressures in the booming economy. Some market watchers fear it is already at risk of overheating..."

It will also serve to boost asset inflation even further. Philippine interest rates are already negative as it is and have been for some time. Since 2010, anyone investing in Philippine T-Bills would have seen negative to marginal real returns after accounting for inflation. As of January 2018, the real interest rate on the 364 day T-Bill was a negative 1.12%. Increasing the money multiplier by 5.3% will only serve to lower negative real interest rates even further - at least in the short run.

To boost real returns, investors will have to pile into physical and financial assets which are already at record high prices.

To wit, the Philippine Stock Market is already at or near record highs:

And so is the real estate market:

It is no coincidence that the greatest increases in asset inflation took place at a time when real interest rates were profoundly negative - as much as 2.3% during a four year period from 2011 to 2014 and in the last two years (beginning in 2016 to present).

To seek yield, investors will have to pile into even more economically marginal investments. When the business cycle turns, as it always does, expect the NPLs to pile up and put our banking system and the Philippine economy on the brink of collapse once again. A pro-cyclical macro policy taking place at the top of the business cycle will only make the bottom of the cycle that much worse. Policy makers should consider macro policies that moderate the top of the economic cycle: counter-cyclical at the top and pro-cyclical at the bottoms. In this way, the tops are less overheated and the bottoms are not as traumatic for the economy as a whole.

Singapore Breaks its Controlled Slide of House Prices While Philippine House Prices Hit New Highs in 2017 Q3

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore

Singapore's home prices have now been declining for fourteen straight quarters, which, according to Bloomberg, is the longest losing streak in five years.  Home prices are still  67.32% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.59% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by almost than 40 percentage points.

 Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 255.74 as of the fourth quarter 2016, 155.74% higher than year-end 1998 levels.  General price levels as of the fourth quarter 2016 are only around 49.03% higher than their year-end 1998 levels.

Indonesia

Meanwhile, in Indonesia, home prices have shown no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices are now at 149.75 as of the third quarter of 2017 or 49.75% above their first quarter 2007 levels. Inflation, however, has marched higher.  General prices are 81.32% above first quarter 2007 levels. House prices, therefore, have lagged inflation by 31.37%.

Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 235.20% as of the third quarter 2017 or over 135.20% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices have posted one of the largest 10 year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by almost seventy percentage points.  General prices stood at 167.13% or 67.13% above their year-end 2004 levels. Like Indonesia, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

 

Philippine House Prices Hit New Peak While Sales Volumes Drop Sharply in the 1st Semester of 2017

In the first half of 2017, the Philippine House Price Index hit a new peak of 232.41. This is 3.09% higher than the previous peak of 225.44 posted in the first quarter of 2017 and 8.05% on a year-on-year basis. From 2004 to the present, the Philippine House Price Index has climbed much faster than inflation. The gap between current house prices and house prices adjusted for inflation stands at its highest ever, 66.52%.  Meaning, had house prices merely tracked inflation since 2004, the Philippine House Price Index would now stand at just 165.89 as of the first half of 2017.

Source: Collier's International Philippines, Makati CBD Prices

Sales volumes, as indicated by the HLURB Licenses to Sell Statistics, have shown a dramatic slowdown in the first half of 2017. Annualized Sales Volumes now stand at 171,172 units for the first half of 2017. This is off by 34.20% since year-end 2016.  This sales volume now stands at slightly higher than the 170,379 level posted at year-end 2011 and below the 172,967 level posted almost ten years ago at year-end 2007.  If sales volumes do not pick up in the second half of 2017, the long-term upward trend in ever increasing sales volumes that has been in place since 2001 would have been broken, indicating a real estate bear market is imminent.

Source: HLURB Licenses to Sell

The (Un)Steady State of Philippine Real Estate in 2016

At 109.77%, 8990 Holdings still has the most Real Estate Receivables relative to its Stockholder's Equity in 2016. Next is Century Properties at 70.49% of Stockholder's Equity, followed by Ayala Land at 46.92% of Stockholder's Equity.

Naturally, 8990 Holdings still has the most problematic Real Estate Receivables. Problem Real Estate Receivables amount to 11.10% of its Stockholder's Equity as of 2016. Believe it or not, this figure is way down from the 20.40% it posted in 2015.  Ayala Land's Problem Real Estate Receivables amount to 6.72% of its Stockholder's Equity in 2016. Neck and neck for third place are SM Prime Holdings and SM Investments with Problem Real Estate Receivables amounting to 3.68% and 3.61% of their respective Stockholder's Equity.

 SM Prime Holdings also holds the dubious distinction of having the highest percentage of Past Due But Not Impaired Real Estate Receivables relative to Total Real Estate Receivables in 2016. This is closely followed by Ayala Land with 14.63% of its Real Estate Receivables in Past Due status. Both Vista Land and 8990 Holdings have similar ratios with 9.58% (Vista Land) and 9.44% (8990 Holdings) of its Real Estate Receivables falling Past Due in 2016.

Related Posts:

Ayala Land's Real Estate Receivables Problem Has Gotten Worse, Not Better

8990 Holdings Inc.'s 2016 Annual Report: What a Difference an Auditor Makes!

8990 Holdings Inc.'s Impaired Installment Contracts Receivable (ICRs): The Pig Has Finally Broken Out of the Python!

The Philippine Real Estate Bubble Has Also Burst For... Ayala Land!

The Philippine Real Estate Bubble Has Also Burst for Vista Land

The Philippine Real Estate Bubble Has Already Burst for HOUSE (8990 Holdings, Inc.)

The Unbearable Volatility of BSP's Residential Real Estate Price Index

Perhaps because the index has been in its infancy but according to BSP's Residential Real Estate Price Index (RREPI) investors in residential real estate have been experiencing a nausea-inducing roller-coaster ride in terms of asset prices.

The swings in the areas outside the National Capital Region (Ex-NCR) are particularly problematic. Within the past two years, RREPI - All Types for the Ex-NCR area has swung from a high of 125.7 in the second quarter of 2016 from a low of 106.2 as of the 2nd Qtr. of 2015, an increase of 15.51% in just one year. Then in the next quarter, the index drops by 10.74% to 112.2 as of the 3rd Qtr of 2016. The RREPI - All Types index for the Ex-NCR area now rests at 116.8 as of the 1st Qtr 2017 or 4.10% higher than what it was just two quarters ago.

This volatility of the Ex-NCR RREPI-All Types has influenced large swings in the overall Philippine RREPI-All Types. Since its inception, the nationwide index has swung 10.18% from bottom to top. No doubt, the volatility of the Philippine-wide RREPI-All Types was tempered by the low volatility of the NCR RREPI - All Types, which fluctuated by only 2.63% from peak to trough.

The same dynamic has been playing out as you drill down into the index's sub-sectors, whether they be Single Detached Homes, Duplex, Townhouses, or Condominiums. Ex-NCR is volatile while NCR has smoother fluctuations, leading to a more volatile nationwide index for each sub-sector.

The Philippines was one of the last countries in the ASEAN to institute a National Residential Real Estate Index. Other countries have done this much sooner. However, late is better than never. In the meantime, for planning purposes, the index has limited utility.

Singapore Continues its Controlled Slide of House Prices While Philippine House Prices Hit New Highs in 2017 Q1

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore

Singapore's home prices have now been declining for fourteen straight quarters, which, according to Bloomberg, is the longest losing streak in five years.  Home prices are still  66.32% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.19% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by almost than 40 percentage points.

Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 262.42 as of the third quarter 2016, 162.42% higher than year-end 1998 levels.  General price levels as of the third quarter 2016 are only around 48.41% higher than their year-end 1998 levels.

Thailand


In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. Since 2013, home prices have rebounded to 114.50 or 14.50% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 34.51% above their year-end 2004 levels. In other words, Thailand Home Prices have lagged inflation by as much as 20.01% since their year-end 2004 levels.

Indonesia

Meanwhile, in Indonesia, home prices have shown no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices are now at 146.32 or 46.32% above their first quarter 2007 levels. Inflation, however, has marched higher.  General prices are 77.52% above first quarter 2007 levels, lagging inflation by 31.20%.

Philippines


Philippine house price index stands at 225.44% as of the first quarter 2017 or over 125.44% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices have posted one of the largest 10 year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by more than sixty percentage points.  General prices stood at 164.63% or 64.63% above their year-end 2004 levels. Like Indonesia, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.