While Philippine House Prices Rose Sharply in 2018, Sales Volumes Fell. Is this the Start of the Real Estate Crash?

In a classic technical analysis indicator, Philippine Home Prices rose by 15.40% in 2018 while sales volumes fell by a startling 25.55% over the previous year, indicating that fewer and fewer people could afford the higher prices.

Despite this, House Prices, at least in the Makati CBD, continued to rise even further, by 10.07% as of the second quarter of 2019.

Today, the BSP reported that its Residential Real Estate Price Index (RREPI) fell by 2.08% on a Philippine-wide basis and across all types. Prices in areas outside the National Capital Region (Ex-NCR) fell while real estate prices in the National Capital Region (NCR) stayed about flat.

Although this is only a slowdown and a very marginal one at that, it could lead to a crash as the market clears.

This is Even Nuttier! When's the Crash? Philippine Home Prices Have Gone Even More Parabolic!