Are ASEAN House Prices Accelerating? The Blow Off Top Continues as of Q2 2018

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore

Singapore's home prices which have been declining for fourteen straight quarters, have resumed their upward trend. Home prices have rebounded by 9.00% off the low of 168.02 as of the second quarter of 2018. However, home prices are still  83.27% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.87% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by more than 50 percentage points.

 Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 271.12 as of the first quarter 2018, 171.12% higher than year-end 1998 levels.  General price levels as of the fourth quarter 2017 are only around 55.59% higher than their year-end 1998 levels.

  

 Thailand

In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. In the second quarter of 2018, home prices have rebounded to 122.70, or 22.70% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 35.65% above their year-end 2004 levels. In other words, Thailand Home Prices have lagged inflation by as much as 12.95% since their year-end 2004 levels.

Indonesia

 
Meanwhile in Indonesia, home prices have showed no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices seem to have gone parabolic, climbing 4.63% in the last quarter of 2013, from a base of 121.49 as of the third quarter of 2013 to 127.11 as of year end 2013. In the first quarter of 2018, home prices have climbed an additional 25.47% to reach 152.58.  Since the first quarter of 2007, home prices have risen 52.58%, while inflation has raised general prices by 84.21% during the same period. Indonesian Home Prices, like Thailand, have lagged inflation since 2007.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong real estate prices have reached a staggering 465.25 as of the second quarter of 2018 from a base of 100 since year-end 2004. General inflation levels have just climbed 46.79% during this same period.  In other words, Hong Kong home prices have outpaced inflation by an astounding 318.46% during this period, the highest rate of appreciation in the countries covered in this post.

However, it is important to note that Hong Kong Home Prices have also entered into a minor correction phase, declining by 9.83% from its recent peak of 365.95 as of the third quarter of 2015 to just 329.38 as of the first quarter of 2016.  Although there was a distinct possibility that Hong Kong Home Prices entered a bear market just as it did in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, that possibility has now disappeared and the index is at an all-time high. See previous post: How low can Hong Kong Property Prices Go? Some Clues from the Not Too Distant Past

Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 255.26 at the end of the second quarter 2018 or over 155.26% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices, with the exception of Hong Kong, have posted the largest 10-year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Like Singapore and Malaysia, Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by around seventy-eight percentage points.  Like Indonesia and Hong Kong, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

 Source: Colliers International Philippines

Are ASEAN House Prices Accelerating? Is this the Blow Off Top in the ASEAN Real Estate Market?

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore

Singapore's home prices which have been declining for fourteen straight quarters, have resumed their upward trend. Home prices have rebounded by 5.46% off the low of 166.15 as of the first quarter of 2018. However, home prices are still  75.22% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 31.45% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by almost than 40 percentage points.

 Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 270.70 as of the fourth quarter 2017, 170.70% higher than year-end 1998 levels.  General price levels as of the fourth quarter 2017 are only around 54.89% higher than their year-end 1998 levels.

Thailand


In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. In the first quarter of 2018, home prices have rebounded to 122.61, or 22.61% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 35.20% above their year-end 2004 levels. In other words, Thailand Home Prices have lagged inflation by as much as 12.59% since their year-end 2004 levels.

 


Indonesia

 
Meanwhile in Indonesia, home prices have showed no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices seem to have gone parabolic, climbing 4.63% in the last quarter of 2013, from a base of 121.49 as of the third quarter of 2013 to 127.11 as of year end 2013. In the first quarter of 2018, home prices have climbed an additional 25.47% to reach 152.58.  Since the first quarter of 2007, home prices have risen 52.58%, while inflation has raised general prices by 84.21% during the same period. Indonesian Home Prices, like Thailand, have lagged inflation since 2007.

Hong Kong

 

Hong Kong real estate prices have reached a staggering 446.68 as of the first quarter of 2018 from a base of 100 since year-end 2004. General inflation levels have just climbed 47.18% during this same period.  In other words, Hong Kong home prices have outpaced inflation by an astounding 29.50% during this period, the highest rate of appreciation in the countries covered in this post.

However, it is important to note that Hong Kong Home Prices have also entered into a minor correction phase, declining by 9.83% from its recent peak of 365.95 as of the third quarter of 2015 to just 329.38 as of the first quarter of 2016.  Although there was a distinct possibility that Hong Kong Home Prices entered a bear market just as it did in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, that possibility has now disappeared and the index is at an all-time high. See previous post: How low can Hong Kong Property Prices Go? Some Clues from the Not Too Distant Past

 

 

 

Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 248.31 at the end of the first quarter 2018 or over 148.31% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices, with the exception of Hong Kong, have posted the largest 10-year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Like Singapore and Malaysia, Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by around seventy-eight percentage points.  Like Indonesia and Hong Kong, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

 

 

 

 Global Property Guide, Trading Economics, World Bank, Colliers International Philippines

Singapore Breaks its Controlled Slide of House Prices While Philippine House Prices Hit New Highs in 2017 Q4

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore

Singapore's home prices which have been declining for fourteen straight quarters, have resumed their upward trend. Home prices have rebounded by 1.51% off the low of 166.15 as of the second quarter of 2017. Howevery, home prices are still  68.66% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.67% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by almost than 40 percentage points.

 Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 267.28 as of the third quarter 2017, 167.28% higher than year-end 1998 levels.  General price levels as of the third quarter 2017 are only around 53.54% higher than their year-end 1998 levels.

 Thailand

 Thailand's home prices have still not kept up with inflation. As of the fourth quarter of 2017, home prices are just 19.22% above their year-end 2004 levels, while the inflation index is 34.99% above its year-end 2004 levels.

 

Indonesia 

Meanwhile, in Indonesia, home prices have shown no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory. In fact, prices are now at 150.44 as of the fourth quarter of 2017 or 50.44% above their first quarter 2001 levels. Inflation, however, has marched higher. General prices are 82.71% above their first quarter 2007 levels. House prices, therefore, have lagged inflation by 32.27%.

 Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 241.08% as of the fourth quarter 2017 or over 141.08% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices have posted one of the largest 10 year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by over seventy percentage points.  General prices stood at 168.54% or 68.54% above their year-end 2004 levels. Like Indonesia, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

Singapore Breaks its Controlled Slide of House Prices While Philippine House Prices Hit New Highs in 2017 Q3

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore

Singapore's home prices have now been declining for fourteen straight quarters, which, according to Bloomberg, is the longest losing streak in five years.  Home prices are still  67.32% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.59% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by almost than 40 percentage points.

 Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 255.74 as of the fourth quarter 2016, 155.74% higher than year-end 1998 levels.  General price levels as of the fourth quarter 2016 are only around 49.03% higher than their year-end 1998 levels.

Indonesia

Meanwhile, in Indonesia, home prices have shown no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices are now at 149.75 as of the third quarter of 2017 or 49.75% above their first quarter 2007 levels. Inflation, however, has marched higher.  General prices are 81.32% above first quarter 2007 levels. House prices, therefore, have lagged inflation by 31.37%.

Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 235.20% as of the third quarter 2017 or over 135.20% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices have posted one of the largest 10 year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by almost seventy percentage points.  General prices stood at 167.13% or 67.13% above their year-end 2004 levels. Like Indonesia, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

 

Singapore Continues its Controlled Slide of House Prices While Philippine House Prices Hit New Highs in 2017 Q1

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore

Singapore's home prices have now been declining for fourteen straight quarters, which, according to Bloomberg, is the longest losing streak in five years.  Home prices are still  66.32% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.19% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by almost than 40 percentage points.

Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 262.42 as of the third quarter 2016, 162.42% higher than year-end 1998 levels.  General price levels as of the third quarter 2016 are only around 48.41% higher than their year-end 1998 levels.

Thailand


In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. Since 2013, home prices have rebounded to 114.50 or 14.50% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 34.51% above their year-end 2004 levels. In other words, Thailand Home Prices have lagged inflation by as much as 20.01% since their year-end 2004 levels.

Indonesia

Meanwhile, in Indonesia, home prices have shown no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices are now at 146.32 or 46.32% above their first quarter 2007 levels. Inflation, however, has marched higher.  General prices are 77.52% above first quarter 2007 levels, lagging inflation by 31.20%.

Philippines


Philippine house price index stands at 225.44% as of the first quarter 2017 or over 125.44% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices have posted one of the largest 10 year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by more than sixty percentage points.  General prices stood at 164.63% or 64.63% above their year-end 2004 levels. Like Indonesia, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

Have ASEAN House Prices Kept Up With Incomes?

The short answer is: yes. Throughout the ASEAN region, incomes have risen together with house prices. The only exception is Thailand, where house prices have underperformed both incomes as well as inflation. As of 2015, the Thailand House Price Index is only 15.13% higher than where it was as of year-end 2004. Incomes, as measured by GDP Per Capita, are 120% higher than they were during the same period. General prices are 33.84% higher than they were for the same period.

In all the other countries, incomes have outpaced house prices as well as inflation. However, in certain countries, the gap between incomes and house prices is narrowing. In Malaysia, incomes fell in 2015 to such an extent that only a 16.38% gap exists between incomes and house prices. The GDP per capita index now stands at 243.88 while house price index is at 227.50 as of 2015.

In Singapore, that gap between incomes and house prices is now only 20.66 percentage points.

In Indonesia, the gap between incomes and inflation has narrowed considerably. It is only 10.02% percentage points. But the gap between incomes and house prices remains stubbornly wide: 37.95% percentage points.

In the Philippines, incomes have outpaced house prices by a large margin 47.89% percentage points as of 2015.  The gap between incomes and inflation is even larger: 107.96% percentage points.

This indicates that ASEAN house prices, in general, may have more room to run if incomes continue to grow and that growth is evenly distributed. As in most emerging economies, income and wealth inequality is rampant, especially in the Philippines. Read: One Major Reason for the Rise of the Vulgarian Rodrigo Duterte: Wealth Inequality

Singapore Continues its Controlled Slide of House Prices While Philippine House Prices Decline Slightly in 2016

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.


Singapore



Singapore's home prices have now been declining for thirteen straight quarters, which, according to Bloomberg, is the longest losing streak in five years.  Home prices are still  68.93% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 28.97% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by almost than 40 percentage points.

Malaysia


Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index now stands at 235.06 as of the third quarter 2016, 135.06% higher than year-end 2004 levels.  General price levels as of the third quarter 2016 are only around 34.15% higher than their year end 2004 levels.

Thailand


In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. Since 2013, home prices have rebounded to 114.69 or 14.69% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 34.09% above their year-end 2004 levels. In other words, Thailand Home Prices have lagged inflation by as much as 19.40% since their year-end 2004 levels.

Indonesia

Meanwhile, in Indonesia, home prices have shown no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices are now at 146.88 or 46.88% above their first quarter 2007 levels. Inflation, however, has marched higher.  General prices are 75.92% above first quarter 2007 levels, lagging inflation by 29.04%.

Philippines


Philippine house price index stands at 218.47% as of year-end 2016 or over 118.48% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices have posted one of the largest 10 year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by more than fifty percentage points.  General prices stood at 163.35% or 63.35% above their year-end 2004 levels. Like Indonesia, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Thailand Post Flat to Declining Housing Prices, Can the Philippines and Indonesia be Not Far Behind? - 1st Qtr. 2016

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.


Singapore



Singapore's home prices have now been declining for ten straight quarters, which, according to Bloomberg, is the longest losing streak in five years.  Home prices are still  71.11% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.39% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by more than 40 percentage points.

Malaysia




Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index actually topped out at 229.30 in the third  quarter of 2015 and has declined to 227.50 as of the fourth quarter of 2015.  Home prices are 127.5% above their year-end 2000 levels.  General price levels are over 100 percentage points lower, at 25.56% above their year-end 2000 levels.

Thailand



In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. In the first quarter of 2016, home prices have rebounded to 115.22, or 15.22% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 33.67% above their year-end 2004 levels. In other words, Thailand Home Prices have lagged inflation by as much as 18.45% since their year-end 2004 levels.

Indonesia



Meanwhile in Indonesia, home prices have showed no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices seem to have gone parabolic, climbing 4.63% in the last quarter of 2013, from a base of 121.49 as of the third quarter of 2013 to 127.11 as of year end 2013.  In the first quarter of 2016, home prices have climbed an additional 15.43% to reach 142.54.  Since the first quarter of 2007, home prices have risen 42.54%, while inflation has raised general prices by 71.68% during the same period. Indonesian Home Prices, like Thailand, have lagged inflation since 2007.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong real estate prices have leaped by 214.84% in a little over 10 years to reach a staggering 314.84 as of the first quarter of 2016 from a base of 100 since year-end 2004. General inflation levels have just climbed 40.49% during this same period.  In other words, Hong Kong home prices have outpaced inflation by an astounding 174.35% during this period, the highest rate of appreciation in the countries covered in this post.

However, it is important to note that Hong Kong Home Prices have also entered into a correction phase, declining by 10.12% from its recent peak of 350.31 as of the third quarter of 2015 to just 314.84 as of the first quarter of 2016.  There is a distinct possibility that Hong Kong Home Prices may have entered a bear market just as it did in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. See previous post: How low can Hong Kong Property Prices Go? Some Clues from the Not Too Distant Past

Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 220.99 at the end of the first quarter 2016 or over 120.99% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices, with the exception of Hong Kong, have posted the largest 10-year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Like Singapore and Malaysia, Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by around sixty percentage points.  Like Indonesia and Hong Kong, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

Source: Global Property Guide, Trading Economics, World Bank, Colliers International Philippines

Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Post Flat to Declining Housing Prices, Can the Philippines and Indonesia be Not Far Behind? - 3rd Qtr 2015

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.


Singapore



Singapore's home prices have now been declining for seven straight quarters, which, according to Bloomberg, is the longest losing streak in five years.  Home prices are still  73.18% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.89% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by more than 40 percentage points.

Malaysia



Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index actually topped out at 182.14 in the fourth quarter of 2014 and has declined to 181.68 as of the third quarter of 2015.  Home prices are 81.68% above their year-end 2004 levels.  General price levels are almost 50 percentage points lower, at 31.91% above their year-end 2004 levels.

Thailand


In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. In the third quarter of 2015, home prices have rebounded to 108.63, or 8.63% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 34.13% above their year-end 2004 levels.

Indonesia

Meanwhile in Indonesia, home prices have showed no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices seem to have gone parabolic, climbing 4.63% in the last quarter of 2013, from a base of 121.49 as of the third quarter of 2013 to 127.11 as of year end 2013.  In the third quarter of 2015, home prices have climbed an additional 13.78% to reach 140.81.  Since the first quarter of 2007, home prices have risen 40.89%. Indonesian Home Prices, like Thailand, have lagged inflation since 2007.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong real estate prices have leaped by 250.31% in a little over 10 years to reach a staggering 350.31 as of the third quarter of 2015 from a base of 100 since year-end 2004. General inflation levels have just climbed 38.66% during this same period.  In other words, Hong Kong home prices have outpaced inflation by an astounding 211.65% during this period, the highest rate of appreciation in the countries covered in this post.

Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 220.11 at the end of the third quarter 2015 or over 120.11% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices, with the exception of Hong Kong, have posted the largest 10-year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Like Singapore and Malaysia, Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by around sixty percentage points.  Like Indonesia and Hong Kong, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

Source: Global Property Guide, Trading Economics

Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Post Flat to Declining Housing Prices, Can the Philippines and Indonesia be Not Far Behind? - 2nd Qtr 2015

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

Singapore


Singapore's home prices have now been declining for seven straight quarters, which, according to Bloomberg, is the longest losing streak in five years.  Home prices are still  75.50% above their year end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 30.09% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by more than 45 percentage points.

Malaysia




Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index actually topped out at 182.14 in the fourth quarter of 2014 and has declined to 180.24 as of the second quarter of 2015.  Home prices are 80.24% above their year end 2004 levels.  General price levels are around 50 percentage points lower, at 31.06% above their year end 2004 levels.

Thailand




In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. In the second quarter of 2015, home prices have rebounded to 105.43, or 5.43% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 34.50% above their year end 2004 levels.

Indonesia



Meanwhile in Indonesia, home prices have showed no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices seem to have gone parabolic, climbing 4.63% in the last quarter of 2013, from a base of 121.49 as of the third quarter of 2013 to 127.11 as of year end 2013.  In the second quarter of 2015, home prices have climbed an additional 9.75% to reach 139.51.  Since the first quarter of 2007, home prices have risen 39.51%. Indonesian Home Prices, like every other country in this list with the exception of Thailand, have climbed faster inflation since 2007.

Hong Kong


Hong Kong real estate prices have leaped by 234.46% in a little over 10 years to reach a staggering 345.03 as of the second quarter of 2015 from a base of 100 since year-end 2004. General inflation levels have just climbed 37.87% during this same period.  In other words, Hong Kong home prices have outpaced inflation by an astounding 207.16% during this period, the highest rate of appreciation in the countries covered in this post.

Philippines


Philippine house price index stands at 217.20 at the end of the second quarter 2015 or over 117.20% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices, with the exception of Hong Kong, have posted the largest 10 year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Like Singapore and Malaysia, Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by around fifty-seven percentage points.  Like Indonesia and Hong Kong, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

Source: Global Property Guide, Trading Economics