Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Post Flat to Declining Housing Prices, Can the Philippines and Indonesia be Not Far Behind? - 3rd Qtr 2015

Almost all countries discussed in this blog post, with the exception of Thailand, have been experiencing rapid growth in home prices that have outstripped inflation by a wide margin.  The gap between home prices and their inflation adjusted levels are at the widest ever, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines.


Singapore



Singapore's home prices have now been declining for seven straight quarters, which, according to Bloomberg, is the longest losing streak in five years.  Home prices are still  73.18% above their year-end 2004 levels. Overall prices levels, as measured by inflation have just increased by 29.89% since year end 2004.  In other words, for the past ten years, Singaporean home prices have outpaced inflation by more than 40 percentage points.

Malaysia



Neighboring Malaysia's House Price Index actually topped out at 182.14 in the fourth quarter of 2014 and has declined to 181.68 as of the third quarter of 2015.  Home prices are 81.68% above their year-end 2004 levels.  General price levels are almost 50 percentage points lower, at 31.91% above their year-end 2004 levels.

Thailand


In Thailand, which has been experiencing political turmoil for some time, home prices have remained essentially flat since the end of 2004. Home Prices ended 2013 with the index at 100.54, just 0.54% higher than the end of 2004, but showing a substantial recovery since the recent low of 74.08 posted in the third quarter of 2009. In the third quarter of 2015, home prices have rebounded to 108.63, or 8.63% higher than its year-end 2004 levels, way below its expected inflation adjusted levels. General Price levels are 34.13% above their year-end 2004 levels.

Indonesia

Meanwhile in Indonesia, home prices have showed no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory.  In fact, prices seem to have gone parabolic, climbing 4.63% in the last quarter of 2013, from a base of 121.49 as of the third quarter of 2013 to 127.11 as of year end 2013.  In the third quarter of 2015, home prices have climbed an additional 13.78% to reach 140.81.  Since the first quarter of 2007, home prices have risen 40.89%. Indonesian Home Prices, like Thailand, have lagged inflation since 2007.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong real estate prices have leaped by 250.31% in a little over 10 years to reach a staggering 350.31 as of the third quarter of 2015 from a base of 100 since year-end 2004. General inflation levels have just climbed 38.66% during this same period.  In other words, Hong Kong home prices have outpaced inflation by an astounding 211.65% during this period, the highest rate of appreciation in the countries covered in this post.

Philippines

Philippine house price index stands at 220.11 at the end of the third quarter 2015 or over 120.11% above their year-end 2004 levels.  Philippine home prices, with the exception of Hong Kong, have posted the largest 10-year gains among all the countries considered in this blog post.  Like Singapore and Malaysia, Philippine home prices have outstripped inflation by around sixty percentage points.  Like Indonesia and Hong Kong, Philippine home prices have so far no signs of slowing down their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.   The question is, is this momentum sustainable?  Or will the Philippines and Indonesia follow its ASEAN neighbors, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, in exhibiting plateauing or declining house prices?  That remains to be seen.

Source: Global Property Guide, Trading Economics