It's Official: The Current Economic Recovery is Now Much Slower Than That of the Great Depression

There's no doubt about it. The economic decline of the Great Depression was extremely severe. Nominal GDP per capita decline by almost 50% during the Great Depression versus a slightly more than 2% decline in Nominal GDP per capita during the Great Recession. Eleven years after the start of the Great Depression, Nominal GDP per capita was still almost 10% lower. In the Great Recession, it is 27.01% higher.

However, economic growth rates during the Great Depression were much more robust than that of the Great Recession, both on an absolute basis and on a per capita basis.

In truth, the economic recovery of the Great Recession has been almost imperceptible to most Americans. On a per capita bais, real GDP per Capita grew by 7.66% in the past eleven years - or roughly a compounded annual average growth rate of only 0.67% per annum. This is far less than the so-called "Hindu Rate of Growth" threshold of 1.30% per annum.  This growth rate is so slow that it is almost imperceptible.

In 2018, something extraordinary happened. Those who survived the Great Depression in 1940 (eleven years after the onset of the Great Depression) will be substantially better of than the survivors of the Great Recession in 2018. Real GDP Per Capita for Great Recession survivors would have grown by another anemic 0.67% per annum in 2018. But for survivors of the Great Depression era, their incomes per capita would have grown by an astounding 7.75% in just one year. Moreover, that trend will only accelerate in the next three years. By 1943, Great Depression survivors will be almost 56%  richer than they were in 1940.

Can we expect the same for survivors of the Great Recession in the next three years? It's possible but not probable.

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 Great Depression vs. Great Recession