Who added more jobs? Trump or Obama: June 2019

Obama added more than 10.1 million jobs over two terms, or roughly 105.1K jobs per month. The trouble is, Obama added almost as many jobs to foreigners as he did to native born workers. Forty-three percent of the jobs added went to foreigners.

This ratio was much worse for Obama during his first term: 1.7 million of the jobs added went to foreign born workers. The native born? They lost 537K jobs. In other words, 146% of the jobs went to foreigners.

Obama's second term was much better for native born workers: 70% of the jobs went to them. But it was too late. It was not enough to stem the anti-immigration sentiment that had been building up nationwide. When Trump had announced his candidacy on May 2015 on a vehemently anti-immigrant platform, the jobs growth was still definitely skewed to foreign born workers. They had gained almost 2 million jobs and the native born workers had just gained 237K jobs.

Trump has continued the trend, adding almost 8 million jobs in 29 months, with around 75% of the jobs going to native born workers. Nevertheless, the trend towards hiring foreign born workers continues unabated. The cumulative jobs added to foreign born workers as a percentage to their Civilian Noninstitutional Population was an astounding 10.50% as of June 2019. Native Born workers just gained 3.15% for the same period.

Source: www.bls.gov, https://fred.stlouisfed.org

Is Job Growth Deccelerating?

Is US job growth deccelerating? According to the chart above, job growth peaked at 240 thousand jobs per month in 2015. Since then, jobs added monthly has dropped more than 25% to reach 178 thousand in 2017.

A similar dynamic took place in the Great Recession when job growth peaked at 201 thousand jobs per month in 2006. By 2007, that number had dropped by over 36% in 2007. By 2008, job growth was a negative 63 thousand jobs added per month. The year 2009 was the worst for job growth: the economy lost an average of 495 thousand jobs per month that year. Job growth only turned positive in 2011, when the average hit 132 thousand jobs added per month.

Is the decline in jobs growth signalling another recession in the making?

US Jobs Recovery is Not Running Fast Enough to Stay in Place

Today, the US Labor Department reported that the US economy added around 156,000 jobs in September 2016.  Year to date, the US economy has added around 2.03 million jobs in the nine months since 2015. In the same time, the working-age population (Civilian Non-Institutional Population in BLS parlance) has increased by 2.16 million, leaving 81 thousand out of the labor force.

This pattern has been true for much of the jobs recovery since the Great Recession began in December 2007: the jobs recovery has not been fast enough to cope with the increase in the working-age population.

United States
Employment Situation
In Thousand Persons
											2007 to September 2016
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	September 2016	Variance	% Variance
Civilian Non Institutional Population	231,867	233,788	235,801	237,830	239,618	243,284	246,745	249,027	251,936	254,091	22,224	9.58%
Labor Force	153,124	154,287	154,142	153,889	153,617	154,975	155,047	156,129	157,833	159,907	6,783	4.43%
Employed	146,047	145,362	139,877	139,064	139,869	142,469	144,671	147,442	149,929	151,968	5,921	4.05%
Unemployed	7,078	8,924	14,265	14,825	13,747	12,506	10,376	8,688	7,904	7,939	861	12.16%
Not in Labor Force	78,743	79,501	81,659	83,941	86,001	88,310	91,698	92,898	94,103	94,184	15,441	19.61%

Throughout the whole recovery, the US Civilian Non-Institutional Population has grown by 22.22 million or 9.58% but employment has grown by only 5.92 million or 4.05%.  This has resulted in a disproportionate increase in the people who are not counted as part of the labor force.  "Not in Labor Force" has grown by 15.44 million or 19.61%.

Not in Labor Force has become an ever increasing part of the US working-age population.

As a result, the country's employment to population ratio and labor force participation rate have yet to recover to pre-recession levels.

The labor economy shows signs of improvement.  Part-time employment and long-term unemployment are down significantly.

Moreover, Temporary Help Services are beginning to taper off.

So, the US Jobs Recovery is just muddling through.